tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 57 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 2 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay TPA departures

Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 67%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View TPAFlights at TPA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 58% delay risk for Tampa departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetTPA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 22 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 2:00 PM EST · 5.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Tampa departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 67%

    What changed: 58% → 67% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Tampa 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetTPA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)67% over 22 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 4:00 PM EST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.