Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Thursday to about 2
- Current state
- Resolved at 8:25 AM EST
- Started
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 7 cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Thursday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-05 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.6 over 110 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 2:00 AM EST · 14.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 08:25 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Thursday to about 2
What changed: about 7 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 110 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-05 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~1.9 over 110 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 7:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 13:25 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?