Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 46%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 3:27 PM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 3
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 59% delay risk for Newark departures 6–9 PM Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Thursday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 59% over 106 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 4, 7:00 PM EST · 21.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 01:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Newark departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday at 48%
What changed: 59% → 48% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 110 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 48% over 110 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 8:00 AM EST · 8.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 14:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 46%, near normal
What changed: 48% → 46%; calm-weather level 38%
Tailodds’ model gives the 110 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Thursday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 46% over 110 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 2:00 PM EST · 2.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 20:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?