tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 72 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 1 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay EWR departures

Model raises Newark departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 73%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
5
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Newark departures noon–3 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Newark noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 72 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 5, 2:00 PM EST · 20.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-05 20:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Newark departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 58%

    What changed: 44% → 58% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Newark noon–3 PM Friday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 72 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 3:00 AM EST · 8.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 08:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Newark departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 40%

    What changed: 58% → 40% since the 3:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Newark noon–3 PM Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 72 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 4:00 AM EST · 7.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 09:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Newark departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 44%

    What changed: 40% → 44% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Newark noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 72 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Newark departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 73%

    What changed: 44% → 73% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 73 departures scheduled from Newark noon–3 PM Friday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)73% over 73 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 7:00 AM EST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 13:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 12:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.