tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 61 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay EWR departures

Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 71%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
6
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 56% delay risk for Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 31 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 5, 9:00 PM EST · 23.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Newark departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 65%

    What changed: 56% → 65% since the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)65% over 34 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 9:00 AM EST · 11.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 14:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Newark departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 79%

    What changed: 65% → 79% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)79% over 34 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 12:00 PM EST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 17:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 63%

    What changed: 79% → 63% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)63% over 35 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 2:00 PM EST · 5.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Newark departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 73%

    What changed: 63% → 73% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)73% over 35 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 3:00 PM EST · 5.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 20:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  6. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 71%

    What changed: 73% → 71% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 54%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)71% over 39 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 7:00 PM EST · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.