Model raises Newark departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 78%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 6
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 61% delay risk for Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 61% over 106 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 7:00 PM EST · 21.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 01:28 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Newark departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 65%
What changed: 61% → 65% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 65% over 109 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 9:00 PM EST · 20.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 02:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Newark departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 64%
What changed: 65% → 64% since the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Friday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 64% over 109 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 6:00 AM EST · 11.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Newark departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 78%
What changed: 64% → 78% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 109 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Friday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 78% over 109 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 7:00 AM EST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 13:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Newark departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 69%
What changed: 78% → 69% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Friday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 69% over 111 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 2:00 PM EST · 2.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 20:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Newark departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 78%
What changed: 69% → 78% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 112 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Friday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 78% over 112 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 3:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 20:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Fri Nov 6, 6:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.