Updated model puts Newark departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 74%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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- Latest activity
- Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 56% delay risk for Newark departures 3–6 PM Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 82 departures scheduled from Newark 3–6 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 56% over 82 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 4:00 PM EST · 22.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 21:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Newark departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 60%
What changed: 56% → 60% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 95 departures scheduled from Newark 3–6 PM Friday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 60% over 95 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 1:00 AM EST · 13.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Newark departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 59%
What changed: 60% → 59% since the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 95 departures scheduled from Newark 3–6 PM Friday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 59% over 95 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 2:00 AM EST · 11.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 08:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Newark departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 61%
What changed: 59% → 61% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 96 departures scheduled from Newark 3–6 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 61% over 96 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 3:00 AM EST · 11.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 08:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 55%
What changed: 61% → 55% since the 3:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 96 departures scheduled from Newark 3–6 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 96 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 4:00 AM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 09:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Newark departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 74%
What changed: 55% → 74% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 96 departures scheduled from Newark 3–6 PM Friday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 74% over 96 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 7:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 13:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Fri Nov 6, 3:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.