tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 62 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 1 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation EWR departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday to about 3

Current state
Resolved at 9:27 AM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 7 cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 109 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.7 over 109 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 5, 10:00 PM EST · 19.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 03:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday to about 3

    What changed: about 7 → 3

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 109 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~2.6 over 109 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 8:00 AM EST · 8.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 14:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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