Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 40%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 6:56 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Newark departures 3–6 PM Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 84 departures scheduled from Newark 3–6 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 50% over 84 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 4, 4:00 PM EST · 22.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-04 21:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 40%, near normal
What changed: 50% → 40%; calm-weather level 34%
Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from Newark 3–6 PM Thursday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 40% over 97 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 6:00 AM EST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?