Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 35%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 6:57 PM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 7
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 53% delay risk for Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 53% over 34 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 4, 9:00 PM EST · 23.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 02:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Newark departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 58%
What changed: 53% → 58% since the 9:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 58% over 38 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 3:00 AM EST · 17.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 08:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 58%
What changed: 58% → 58% since the 3:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 58% over 38 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 4:00 AM EST · 16.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Newark departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 58%
What changed: 58% → 58% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 58% over 38 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 7:00 AM EST · 12.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 13:25 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Newark departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday at 52%
What changed: 58% → 52% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 52% over 38 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 8:00 AM EST · 11.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 14:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Newark departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday at 41%
What changed: 52% → 41% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 38 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 38 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 4:00 PM EST · 4.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 21:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 35%, near normal
What changed: 41% → 35%; calm-weather level 33%
Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 35% over 39 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 6:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 23:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?