Model lowers Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 32%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 8:25 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Miami departures noon–3 PM Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 134 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Thursday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 134 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 3:00 AM EST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 08:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 53%
What changed: 42% → 53% since the 3:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 134 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Thursday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 53% over 134 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 4:00 AM EST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 33%
What changed: 53% → 33% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 134 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Thursday an average 33% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 33% over 134 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 5:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 32%, near normal
What changed: 33% → 32%; calm-weather level 24%
Tailodds’ model gives the 134 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Thursday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 32% over 134 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 7:00 AM EST · 3.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 13:25 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?