tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MIA departures

Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 35%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 8:26 PM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View MIAFlights at MIA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 89 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 89 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 5, 10:00 AM EST · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-05 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 35%, near normal

    What changed: 45% → 35%; calm-weather level 32%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)35% over 90 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 5, 7:00 PM EST · 0.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 01:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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