Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 39%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 6:55 AM PST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 47% delay risk for San Diego departures noon–3 PM Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 119 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 47% over 119 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 5:00 AM PST · 5.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 14:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 39%, near normal
What changed: 47% → 39%; calm-weather level 32%
Tailodds’ model gives the 119 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Thursday an average 39% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 39% over 119 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 6:00 AM PST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 14:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?