Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 44%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 7:56 AM PST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 51% delay risk for San Diego departures 3–6 PM Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Thursday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 51% over 92 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 5:00 AM PST · 8.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 14:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 44%, near normal
What changed: 51% → 44%; calm-weather level 36%
Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 7:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 44% over 92 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 7:00 AM PST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?