tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay MSY departures

Model raises New Orleans departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 62%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 52% delay risk for New Orleans departures 3–6 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from New Orleans 3–6 PM Friday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSY departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 39 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 11:00 AM CST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 17:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises New Orleans departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 62%

    What changed: 52% → 62% since the 11:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from New Orleans 3–6 PM Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSY departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)62% over 40 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 2:00 PM CST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 20:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 3:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.