tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 71 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay MSY departures

Model raises New Orleans departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 73%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 56% delay risk for New Orleans departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from New Orleans 6–9 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSY departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 45 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 11:00 AM CST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 17:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises New Orleans departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 64%

    What changed: 56% → 64% since the 11:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from New Orleans 6–9 PM Friday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSY departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)64% over 45 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 2:00 PM CST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 20:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises New Orleans departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 66%

    What changed: 64% → 66% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from New Orleans 6–9 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSY departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)66% over 45 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 4:00 PM CST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises New Orleans departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 73%

    What changed: 66% → 73% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from New Orleans 6–9 PM Friday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMSY departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)73% over 45 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 5:00 PM CST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Nov 6, 6:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.