tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay BNA departures

Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 76%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 62% delay risk for Nashville departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)62% over 45 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 12:00 PM CST · 8.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 75%

    What changed: 62% → 75% since the 12:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)75% over 45 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 2:00 PM CST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 20:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 76%

    What changed: 75% → 76% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)76% over 45 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 7:00 PM CST · 0.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 02:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 9:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.