Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 64 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~5 cancellationsHorizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 7 → 7 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 72 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~7 cancellationsHorizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 43% → 31%; calm-weather level 13%
Tailodds’ model gives the 54 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 31%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 41% → 25%; calm-weather level 8%
Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 AM Saturday an average 25% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 8%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 25%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 55% → 55% since the 2:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: about 5 → 6 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 54 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~6 cancellationsHorizon 6.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 11:37 PM and 12:37 AM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:37 PM–12:37 AM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 92%Typical 23%
Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Nashville midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 11:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 47%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
What changed: about 8 → 11 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 75 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Expected ~11 cancellationsHorizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 88% → 76% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 76%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 60% → 84% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 84%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
What changed: late share 54% at worst → 29% now
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 11:08 AM and 12:08 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 11:08 AM–12:08 PM CSTSample 17 flightsLate 29%Typical 23%
Of 14 departures that took off between 9:07 AM and 10:07 AM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 14% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:07 AM–10:07 AM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 43%Typical 14%
Of the 37 departures scheduled from Nashville (BNA) between 9:49 AM and 11:19 AM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 32. For 10 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 9:49 AM–11:19 AM CSTTight turns 10 of 32Share 31%
Tailodds’ model gives the 69 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 40%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from Nashville 3–6 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 46%Horizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: tight share 50% at worst → 0% now
Of the 32 departures scheduled from Nashville (BNA) between 4:55 AM and 6:25 AM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 22. For 0 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into BNA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 4:55 AM–6:25 AM CSTTight turns 0 of 22Share 0%
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 7:45 PM and 8:45 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:45 PM–8:45 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 23%
What changed: 69% → 66% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 66%Horizon 1.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 47% at worst → 23% now
Of 22 arrivals that landed between 4:28 PM and 5:28 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 4:28 PM–5:28 PM CSTSample 22 flightsLate 23%Typical 23%
Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from Nashville 3–6 PM Thursday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 51%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
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