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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation BNA departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 26 among Nashville departures 6–9 AM Saturday

Current state: Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started: Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST
Latest activity: Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST
Updates: 4

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

Initial Forecast Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST

Model expects about 6 cancellations among Nashville departures 6–9 AM Saturday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 70 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	BNA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~5.7 over 70 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST · 9.0 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CST
Ingested	Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST
Published here	Fri Nov 13, 8:57 PM CST (2026-11-14 02:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM CST

Model raises expected cancellations to about 7 among Nashville departures 6–9 AM Saturday

What changed: about 6 → 7 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM CST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 71 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	BNA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~7.2 over 71 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST · 7.0 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM CST
Ingested	Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM CST
Published here	Fri Nov 13, 10:57 PM CST (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among Nashville departures 6–9 AM Saturday

What changed: about 7 → 7 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM CST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 72 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	BNA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~6.8 over 72 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST · 1.1 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST