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Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation BNA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Nashville departures noon–3 PM Saturday

Current state: Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started: Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST
Latest activity: Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM CST
Updates: 4

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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Initial Forecast Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST

Model expects about 5 cancellations among Nashville departures noon–3 PM Saturday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 64 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	BNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~5.0 over 64 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST · 7.1 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM CST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 4:56 AM CST (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST

Model raises expected cancellations to about 20 among Nashville departures noon–3 PM Saturday

What changed: about 5 → 20 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM CST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 20 of the 64 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	BNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~19.6 over 64 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST · 6.0 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 5:57 AM CST (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 9:56 AM CST

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among Nashville departures noon–3 PM Saturday

What changed: about 20 → 7 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM CST forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 64 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	BNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~7.2 over 64 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM CST · 2.1 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM CST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 9:56 AM CST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 9:56 AM CST (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 11:56 AM CST