Model raises Nashville departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 78%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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- Latest activity
- Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Nashville departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 51% over 64 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM CST · 9.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Nashville departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 55%
What changed: 51% → 55% since the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 64 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM CST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Nashville departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 55%
What changed: 55% → 55% since the 2:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 64 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM CST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Nashville departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 65%
What changed: 55% → 65% since the 3:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Saturday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 65% over 64 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Nashville departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 78%
What changed: 65% → 78% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Saturday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 78% over 64 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM CST · 1.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 12:00 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.