Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Nashville departures 6–9 PM Saturday
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 9 cancellations among Nashville departures 6–9 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 21 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (43%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.0 over 21 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 PM CST · 3.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 20:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Nashville departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 9 → 4 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 21 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.8 over 21 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 PM CST · 3.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 20:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 5 among Nashville departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 4 → 5 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 20 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (24%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~4.7 over 20 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 PM CST · 1.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 22:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Nashville departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 5 → 4 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 21 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~4.3 over 21 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 PM CST · 0.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 23:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 6:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.