Model raises expected cancellations to about 7 among Nashville departures 6–9 AM Sunday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 5 cancellations among Nashville departures 6–9 AM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 66 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BNA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.4 over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 PM CST · 10.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 01:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Nashville departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 5 → 8 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 66 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BNA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.1 over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 PM CST · 9.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 02:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 10 among Nashville departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 8 → 10 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 66 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BNA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.3 over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM CST · 4.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among Nashville departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 10 → 7 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 66 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BNA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.3 over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM CST · 3.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Nashville departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 7 → 6 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 64 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BNA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.7 over 64 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 2:00 AM CST · 3.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 08:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 7 among Nashville departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 6 → 7 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 64 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BNA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.8 over 64 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 4:00 AM CST · 1.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.