Updated model puts Nashville departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 65%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Nashville departures noon–3 PM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 66 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Sunday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 46% over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM CST · 9.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Nashville departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 65%
What changed: 46% → 65% since the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 66 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Sunday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BNA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 65% over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?