Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Nashville departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 7 cancellations among Nashville departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 70 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BNA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.7 over 70 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM CST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 04:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 9 among Nashville departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 7 → 9 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 70 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BNA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.0 over 70 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM CST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 05:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Nashville departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 9 → 6 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 72 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target BNA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.6 over 72 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 2:00 AM CST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 08:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?