Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 63%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Nashville departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 11:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BNA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 49% over 70 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM CST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 05:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 63%
What changed: 49% → 63% since the 11:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target BNA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 63% over 72 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST · 3.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?