tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation BNA departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 17 among Nashville departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 5 cancellations among Nashville departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 54 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.0 over 54 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 12:00 AM CST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 6 among Nashville departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 5 → 6 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM CST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 54 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.6 over 54 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 1:00 AM CST · 6.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 17 among Nashville departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 6 → 17 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM CST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 54 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~17.0 over 54 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sat Nov 14, 9:01 AM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.