tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay BNA departures

Model lowers Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 66%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 58% delay risk for Nashville departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 26 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 1:00 PM CST · 6.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 20:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 69%

    What changed: 58% → 69% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)69% over 26 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 4:00 PM CST · 4.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 66%

    What changed: 69% → 66% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)66% over 26 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 6:00 PM CST · 1.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Nov 12, 9:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.