tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 72 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 71%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View SANFlights at SAN

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 66% delay risk for San Diego departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 94 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 11:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)66% over 94 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 11:00 AM PST · 5.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 67%

    What changed: 66% → 67% since the 11:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 94 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)67% over 94 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 12:00 PM PST · 5.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 20:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 71%

    What changed: 67% → 71% since the 12:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 94 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Friday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)71% over 94 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 4:00 PM PST · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 6:00 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.