tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 6 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 53%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View SANFlights at SAN

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 11:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 53 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 11:00 AM PST · 8.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 60%

    What changed: 50% → 60% since the 11:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 53 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 1:00 PM PST · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 53%

    What changed: 60% → 53% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 53 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 2:00 PM PST · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 9:01 PM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.