tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 77 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay DCA departures

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for National departures 3–6 PM Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
Create monitor View DCAFlights at DCA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for National departures 3–6 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 99 departures scheduled from National 3–6 PM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 99 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 8:00 AM EST · 5.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 14:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 7, 3:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.