Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Of 28 arrivals that landed between 8:55 PM and 9:55 PM EST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 28% of arrivals at National arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:55 PM–9:55 PM ESTSample 28 flightsLate 54%Typical 28%
Of 21 departures that took off between 6:05 PM and 7:05 PM EST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. National typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:05 PM–7:05 PM ESTSample 21 flightsLate 67%Typical 40%
What changed: late share 54% at worst → 14% now
Of 21 arrivals that landed between 5:53 PM and 6:53 PM EST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 28% of arrivals at National arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:53 PM–6:53 PM ESTSample 21 flightsLate 14%Typical 28%
Of the 44 departures scheduled from National (DCA) between 4:56 PM and 6:26 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 24. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into DCA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 4:56 PM–6:26 PM ESTTight turns 9 of 24Share 38%
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from National 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 43%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 47%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 47% → 32%; calm-weather level 28%
Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Thursday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 32%Horizon 8.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: late share 73% at worst → 14% now
Of 28 departures that took off between 1:28 PM and 2:28 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. National typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 1:28 PM–2:28 PM ESTSample 28 flightsLate 14%Typical 27%
Of 28 arrivals that landed between 9:36 PM and 10:36 PM EST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 28% of arrivals at National arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:36 PM–10:36 PM ESTSample 28 flightsLate 50%Typical 28%
What changed: 44% → 41%; calm-weather level 34%
Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 41%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: late share 60% at worst → 25% now
Of 20 departures that took off between 2:44 PM and 3:44 PM EST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. National typically sees 34% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 2:44 PM–3:44 PM ESTSample 20 flightsLate 25%Typical 34%
Tailodds’ model gives the 99 departures scheduled from National 3–6 PM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 5.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from National noon–3 PM Saturday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 43%Horizon 2.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 65% → 56%
Of 27 arrivals that landed between 10:10 PM and 11:10 PM EST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 28% of arrivals at National arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:10 PM–11:10 PM ESTSample 27 flightsLate 56%Typical 28%
What changed: slow share 46% at worst → 0% now
Of 27 aircraft that landed at National (DCA) between 7:59 PM and 8:59 PM EST and have reached the ramp, 0 took 13 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 3.4 minutes; the median was 3.8 minutes. Usually 4% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.
Landed 7:59 PM–8:59 PM ESTSample 27 arrivalsSlow 0%Usually 4%
What changed: 73% → 60% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from National 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 60%Horizon 2.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 57% → 95%
Of 19 departures that took off between 11:12 AM and 12:12 PM EST, 18 left at least 15 minutes late. National typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:12 AM–12:12 PM ESTSample 19 flightsLate 95%Typical 21%
What changed: 58% → 70% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 117 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Friday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 70%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 57% → 70% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 135 departures scheduled from National 3–6 PM Friday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 70%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 57% → 69% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 123 departures scheduled from National noon–3 PM Friday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 69%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of the 40 departures scheduled from National (DCA) between 10:36 AM and 12:06 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 26. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into DCA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 10:36 AM–12:06 PM ESTTight turns 9 of 26Share 35%
Of the 42 departures scheduled from National (DCA) between 2:27 PM and 3:57 PM EST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 28. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into DCA is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 2:27 PM–3:57 PM ESTTight turns 9 of 28Share 32%
Tailodds’ model gives the 134 departures scheduled from National 3–6 PM Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 116 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 47%Horizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from National 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 41%Horizon 22.1 hModel famA-fc-v3
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