tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 68 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Observed Major Resolved Delay DCA departures

National departure delays worsen: 95% late in the last hour

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
Create monitor View DCAFlights at DCA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Observed

    National departures running late: 41% left 15+ min late in the last hour

    Of 22 departures that took off between 6:51 AM and 7:51 AM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. National typically sees 10% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window6:51 AM–7:51 AM EST
    Sample22 flights, 9 late (41%)
    Comparison10% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 AM hour
    Median delay12.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 12:51 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Observed

    National departure delays worsen: 77% late in the last hour

    What changed: late share 41% → 77%

    Of 13 departures that took off between 9:24 AM and 10:24 AM EST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. National typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window9:24 AM–10:24 AM EST
    Sample13 flights, 10 late (77%)
    Comparison19% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour
    Median delay46.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 15:24 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Observed

    National departure delays ease: 57% late in the last hour, still above normal

    What changed: late share 77% → 57%

    Of 14 departures that took off between 10:02 AM and 11:02 AM EST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. National typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window10:02 AM–11:02 AM EST
    Sample14 flights, 8 late (57%)
    Comparison18% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour
    Median delay30.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 16:02 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Observed

    National departure delays worsen: 95% late in the last hour

    What changed: late share 57% → 95%

    Of 19 departures that took off between 11:12 AM and 12:12 PM EST, 18 left at least 15 minutes late. National typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window11:12 AM–12:12 PM EST
    Sample19 flights, 18 late (95%)
    Comparison21% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour
    Median delay65.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 17:12 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 7, 5:31 AM EST: No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.