tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 68 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay DCA departures

Model raises National departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 70%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View DCAFlights at DCA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 48% delay risk for National departures 3–6 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 135 departures scheduled from National 3–6 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 135 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 4:00 AM EST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 09:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts National departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 57%

    What changed: 48% → 57% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 135 departures scheduled from National 3–6 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 135 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 9:00 AM EST · 5.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 14:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises National departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 70%

    What changed: 57% → 70% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 135 departures scheduled from National 3–6 PM Friday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)70% over 135 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 3:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.