tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 68 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay DCA departures

Model raises National departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 69%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 40% delay risk for National departures noon–3 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 123 departures scheduled from National noon–3 PM Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 123 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 12:00 AM EST · 11.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 05:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts National departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 52%

    What changed: 40% → 52% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 123 departures scheduled from National noon–3 PM Friday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 123 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 4:00 AM EST · 7.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 09:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises National departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 57%

    What changed: 52% → 57% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 123 departures scheduled from National noon–3 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 123 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 9:00 AM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 14:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises National departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 69%

    What changed: 57% → 69% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 123 departures scheduled from National noon–3 PM Friday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)69% over 123 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 10:00 AM EST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 12:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.