tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 78 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data <1 minFAA flight data 1 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay DCA departures

Model forecasts 41% delay risk for National departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for National departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from National 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 44 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 10:00 PM EST · 22.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-05 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Nov 5, 9:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.