tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 5 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 84 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay DCA departures

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for National departures 6–9 PM Thursday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 47% delay risk for National departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 116 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-05 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)47% over 116 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 5, 9:00 AM EST · 8.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-05 14:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Nov 5, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.