tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 h staleForecast cycle 78 minLightning 223 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min

FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (223 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay DCA departures

Model lowers National departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 32%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 9:27 AM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 47% delay risk for National departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)47% over 78 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 2:00 AM EST · 14.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 08:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers National departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 32%, near normal

    What changed: 47% → 32%; calm-weather level 28%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 78 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Thursday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)32% over 78 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 8:00 AM EST · 8.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 14:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?