Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 32%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 8:26 PM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 41% delay risk for JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 66 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM EST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 16:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 32%, near normal
What changed: 41% → 32%; calm-weather level 37%
Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 32% over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 7, 7:00 PM EST · 0.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-08 01:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?