Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 41%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 4:57 PM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 42% delay risk for JFK departures 6–9 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Saturday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 98 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 7, 8:00 AM EST · 8.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 41%, near normal
What changed: 42% → 41%; calm-weather level 33%
Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 98 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 7, 4:00 PM EST · 1.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 21:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?