Model lowers JFK departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 28%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 8:27 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 43% delay risk for JFK departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from JFK noon–3 PM Saturday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 43% over 72 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 7, 4:00 AM EST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 09:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers JFK departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 28%, near normal
What changed: 43% → 28%; calm-weather level 21%
Tailodds’ model gives the 72 departures scheduled from JFK noon–3 PM Saturday an average 28% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-07 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 28% over 72 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 7, 7:00 AM EST · 3.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 13:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?