tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 225 h staleForecast cycle 2 hLightning 225 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (225 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (225 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MDW departures

Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 58%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View MDWFlights at MDW

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Midway departures 6–9 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Sunday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 42 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 2:00 PM CDT · 2.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 20:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 59%

    What changed: 51% → 59% since the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Sunday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)59% over 42 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 4:00 PM CDT · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 58%

    What changed: 59% → 58% since the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Sunday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 5:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 42 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 5:00 PM CDT · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sun Oct 18, 6:00 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.