tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay MDW departures

Model raises Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 65%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
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Updates
2
Create monitor View MDWFlights at MDW

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 63% delay risk for Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)63% over 34 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 4:00 PM CDT · 4.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Sunday to 65%

    What changed: 63% → 65% since the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 7:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)65% over 34 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 7:00 PM CDT · 0.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-19 01:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Oct 18, 9:00 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.