tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 80 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 6 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay BNA departures

Model now puts Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday at 52%, close to its calm-weather level of 45%

Current state
Resolved at 8:26 PM CST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View BNAFlights at BNA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Nashville departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 29 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 9, 2:00 PM CST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-09 20:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model now puts Nashville departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday at 52%, close to its calm-weather level of 45%

    What changed: 50% → 52%; calm-weather level 45%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBNA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-09 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 29 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 9, 7:00 PM CST · 0.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-10 02:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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