tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 70 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay BOS departures

Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Boston departures 3–6 PM Thursday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
Create monitor View BOSFlights at BOS

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Boston departures 3–6 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from Boston 3–6 PM Thursday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)47% over 91 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 11, 4:00 PM EST · 22.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-11 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Thu Nov 12, 3:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.