tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 68 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 7 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay BOS departures

Model raises Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 71%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Boston departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 96 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Thursday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 96 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 11, 7:00 PM EST · 21.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 01:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 55%

    What changed: 57% → 55% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Thursday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 101 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 2:00 AM EST · 14.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 08:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday at 58%

    What changed: 55% → 58% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 101 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 18:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Boston departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 71%

    What changed: 58% → 71% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from Boston 6–9 PM Thursday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)71% over 101 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 2:00 PM EST · 2.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 20:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Nov 12, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.