tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation SFO departures

Updated model now expects about 5 among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
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Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 8 cancellations among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 106 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~8.3 over 106 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 10:00 AM PST · 22.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 18:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 5 among SFO departures 9 AM–noon Friday

    What changed: about 8 → 5 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM PST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 107 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Friday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~4.7 over 107 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 5:00 AM PST · 2.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 14:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 13, 9:00 AM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.