tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 66 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Developing Cancellation SFO departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 9 cancellations among SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 93 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~9.4 over 93 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 4:00 PM PST · 21.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday

    What changed: about 9 → 8 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM PST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 94 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~8.5 over 94 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 5:00 PM PST · 20.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 02:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among SFO departures 3–6 PM Friday

    What changed: about 8 → 10 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM PST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 94 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~9.8 over 94 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST · 19.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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