tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 76 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 8 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SFO departures

Model now puts SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday at 45%, close to its calm-weather level of 40%

Current state
Resolved at 7:56 PM PST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View SFOFlights at SFO

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for SFO departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 84 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 84 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 11, 11:00 PM PST · 20.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 08:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model now puts SFO departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday at 45%, close to its calm-weather level of 40%

    What changed: 45% → 45%; calm-weather level 40%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from SFO 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 85 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?