tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 76 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 8 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major New Delay SFO departures

Model forecasts 67% delay risk for SFO departures 6–9 PM Friday

Current state
New
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
Create monitor View SFOFlights at SFO

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 67% delay risk for SFO departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)67% over 80 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 7:00 PM PST · 22.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?